基于改进云模型的水利PPP项目风险分担研究

为更好地解决水利PPP项目风险决策过程中存在的投资者心理和行为认知偏差、决策信息的模糊性以及风险发生的随机性等问题,建立了基于云模型和前景理论的水利PPP项目的风险分担综合决策模型。首先,综合分析水利工程和PPP项目的特征,并联合施工现场调研,构建风险分担决策指标体系;其次,通过改进云模型生成算法建立风险分担指标评语云模型,结合云距离、云可能度等概念,综合前景理论得到云前景价值函数;最后,应用离差最大化方法优选出各风险分担指标的权重,通过模糊合成算法对指标权重和云前景值进行合成计算,然后优选方案。结果表明:使用水利PPP项目风险分担方案决策方法,能够量化不确定性的决策信息,提高备选方案的可比性,使方案决策更加清晰直观。

Research on risk sharing for water conservancy PPP project based on improved cloud model

In order to solve current issue about existing water conservancy public-private-partnership(PPP) project risk decision of the investors in the psychology and behavior of cognitive bias, fuzzy decision information and random risk, the PPP project risk sharing scheme model was put forward, which was based on the cloud theory and prospect theory. First, the characteristics of water conservancy project were analyzed, and along with the investigation of construction site, the index system of risk sharing decision-making was established. Second, risk sharing index reviews of the cloud model were established through improved cloud model generation algorithm and the cloud distance and cloud possible degree were put forward, cloud foreground value function was obtained by cloud theory and prospect theory. Finally, the optimal weight of each risk sharing index was calculated based on the deviation maximization method, the fuzzy synthesis algorithm was used to synthesize the index weight and the cloud foreground value, and then the optimal risk sharing plan was selected. The results show that the decision-making method of water conservancy PPP project risk sharing scheme can quantify the uncertain decision information, which can improve the comparability of options and make decision-making more intuitive and clear.