航空机动目标的灰色预测分析

叙述了航空火控系统中滤波的几种方法：曲线拟合、维纳滤波和卡尔曼滤波；分析了滤波中所存在的无法准确知道测量误差的统计特性和目标运动规律的共性问题，并应用灰色系统理论的灰色模型中一阶微分方程的基础，通过一定的数据处理而构成动态微分拟合模型，来对航空机动目标进行预测。讨论了航空火控系统灰色预测的几个特点：信息与噪声统一、可以求解任意时段内的任一时刻的预测值、原始数据整理成规律较强的生成数列、采用残差辩识模型和利用灰色预测控制等。

Analysis of the Grey Predict of the Aviation Motive Targets

In this paper, firstly, several filtering theory in the fire-control system, such as, curve fitting, Wiener filtering and Kalman filter, is discussed. Secondly, the commonness of the problems of measuring error on statistical characteristic and maneuver target＇s regularity, which can＇t be predicted accurately, is analyzed. Thirdly, based on the gray system math model of the gray system theory, the aeronautical maneuver target trace is predicted using dynamic differential fitting model for data processing. In the end, several characters of gray forecasting on aeronautical fire-control system, is given. Such as, both the useful signals and the noise is under consideration. Forecasting value at any moment in any time can be obtained. Series of numbers, which has evident regularity, are produced by the initial data. The residual error identification model is used. The gray predictive control is taken in to account.