1956-2016年黄河流域河川径流演变规律

黄河流域水资源短缺问题突出,深入分析河川径流的演变规律对于流域水资源管理具有重要的指导意义。基于黄河干流上、中、下游不同位置的代表性水文站实测径流,利用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验方法分析了1956-2016年期间黄河流域年、月径流的历史演变规律。结果表明:1956-2016年,除源头区年径流变化不显著以外,黄河流域径流呈现出显著的下降趋势,达到了1%的显著性水平。从上游到下游,河川径流下降幅度越来越大,趋势越来越显著。1980-2000和2001-2016年的多年平均入海径流比1956-1979年分别减少了50. 07%和59. 67%。径流演变呈现出3阶段特征,20世纪50、60年代属于丰水期;随后在70至90年代径流持续下降;在2000年以后径流有所回升。除源头区以外,黄河流域的月径流总体呈现减少趋势;上游和中游地区的月径流占年径流的比例枯增丰减;下游地区月径流占年径流的比例在冬季、夏季增大,春季、秋季减小。

The trend in streamflow of the Yellow River Basin during 1956-2016

The water shortage is severe in the Yellow River basin, and in-depth analysis of the evolution of river runoff is of great guiding significance to the management of water resources in the basin. Based on the measured runoff of representative hydrological stations at different locations at the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the historical evolution of monthly and annual run flow of the Yellow River basin during the period 1956-2016 were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall non-parameter trend test method. The results indicated that the annual and monthly streamflow has a statistically significant decreasing trend in the Yellow River during 1956-2016 at the 1% level, except for the source area. The decrease of stream flow became more obvious from the upper to the lower reach. Compared to the period in 1956-1979, the water flow into the sea decreased by 50.07% and 59.67% in 1980-2000 and 2001-2016, respectively. The evolution of runoff is characterized by three stages, with wet season in the 1950s and 1960s, and the streamflow decreased in 1970s to 1990s, but increased again after 2000. The monthly runoff of the Yellow River basin showed a decreasing trend overall, except for the source area. The proportion of monthly runoff in upstream and midstream areas increased in dry seasons and decreased in wet seasons. The proportion of monthly runoff in the downstream area increased in winter and summer and decreased in spring and autumn.