并联水库群联合防洪预报调度方式优化研究

水库群联合防洪预报调度方式对流域及城市防洪、水资源合理优化配置有重要意义。水库群联合调度不仅要考虑各水库自身约束和预报，还需考虑水库补偿关系，已有试算法经验性强、难以获得全局最优解。文章将优化技术与规划防洪预报调度相融合，提出考虑预报误差的预报调度规则的一般形式和求解思路，建立库群优化调度模型，优化求解各水库的防洪预报调度规则和汛限水位动态控制上限。以清河、柴河水库群为例进行研究，结果表明：联合防洪预报调度相比单库防洪预报调度，清河水库和柴河水库的汛限水位分别可多抬高0.4 m和0.3 m，最大可使汛期多蓄水0.62亿m3。研究结果可为水库群防洪预报调度提供参考和理论依据。

Optimization on joint flood forecast and control operation modes for parallel reservoir groups

Joint flood forecast and control operation modes of reservoir groups are a key measure to river basin flood control and city flood control and also to the reasonable and optimized allocation of water resources. Joint operation of reservoirs needs to consider not only the constraints and forecast of each reservoir, but also reservoir compensation relationship. Previous trial calculation methods depend too much on empirical factors to obtain true global optimal solutions to such operation problems. This work integrates the optimization technique with a planning flood forecast-based operation, formulates a general form and solution procedure of the forecast operation rules considering forecast errors, and develops an optimal operation model for a reservoir group. This model can solve for the optimized flood control operation rules of each reservoir and its dynamic flood control stages. A case study of the Qinghe and Chaihe reservoirs shows that the joint operation schemes can raise the flood control stages of the two reservoirs by 0.4 m and 0.3 m, respectively, hence increasing the total flood water storage by 62 million m3. The results lay a basis for further studies on flood forecast and control operation of reservoir groups.