| Abstract: | Evaluated the feasibility of applying the "bootstrapping" methodology to 5 securities analysts' task of estimating future returns of common stock. Each S estimated the returns of 35 securities on the basis of 22 information cues, selected independently by nonparticipating analysts. Stepwise regression was used to estimate bootstrapping models and actuarial models for all analysts. Using a subset of 15 cross-validation securities, bootstrapping and actuarial models generally were superior to the analysts. The performance of a "composite" analyst was superior to the performances of the 5 Ss. Results indicate the desirability of incorporating linear models into the analyst's judgmental task. (24 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) |
