基于VIC模型的黄河上游未来径流变化分析

为研究变化环境下黄河上游流域降水、气温与径流的变化特征,采用Delta方法对大气环流模式(GCMs)中BCC-CSM1.1模式数据进行降尺度处理,建立未来时期的气候变化情景,应用VIC分布式水文模型,对流域未来径流过程进行预估。结果表明,与基准期(1971—2010年)相比,三种情景下黄河上游未来(2011—2050年)多年平均降水增加4.31%~5.74%;多年平均最高气温和最低气温升高1.04~1.61℃,其中冬季升温最为明显;多年平均径流量分别增加2.65%、2.66%和8.07%,且增加幅度随时间推移逐渐减小,长期呈下降趋势;就年内分配来看,径流在冬季有所增加,夏季略有减少。

Runoff change in upper reach of Yellow River under future climate change based on VIC model

This study investigated the variations in precipitation, temperature and runoff in the upper Yellow river under the changing environment. A Delta method was used to downscale the BCC-CSM1.1 model data of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to establish future climate scenarios, and a VIC distributed hydrological model to simulate the future runoff process. The results show that the long-term mean annual precipitation will increase by 4.31% to 5.74% under different climate scenarios in the next 40 years (2011-2050) compared with the baseline period (1971-2010). And the long-term mean maximum and minimum temperature will increase by 1.04 ℃ to 1.61 ℃ and the increases in winter will be more distinct than in the other seasons. Under three different scenarios, the increase in annual runoff will be 2.65%, 2.66% and 8.07% respectively, but the increasing rate shows a decreasing trend. Seasonally, winter runoff will increase while summer runoff decrease.