中国油气资源发展现状面临的问题和对策

进入20世纪90年代以来,我国石油储量呈现高基值稳定增长态势,年均新增石油可采储量1.5亿t左右,产量稳步上升。预测新区储量增长将持续稳定;全国产量将持续稳定。最新初步评价结果,中国天然气最终探明天然气可采资源量14万亿m3左右。目前我国天然气储量高速增长,产量快速上升,但勘探尚处于早期阶段。预计我国天然气储量还将快速稳步增长。到2020年底我国天然气可采储量将达到5.6万亿m3,探明程度为40％。产量还将快速增长,国内天然气产量2010年达到800亿m3,2020年达到1200亿m3。通过多年的努力,我国油气科技也获得了长足的发展,有力的促进了储量的增长。在油气储量高速增长的同时,我国的油气发展也面临的一系列问题。针对这些问题,笔者提出了若干中国油气可持续发展的思路,包括加大勘探力度,发展前陆盆地、大型古隆起、大型地层岩性带、隐蔽油气藏和海域等领域;加快天然气发展,改善能源结构;扩大国际交流与合作;发展非常规资源,鼓励利用替代能源;采取严厉的节能措施等。通过这些措施的实施,我国石油天然气工业将可持续的发展。

Situation of China's Oil & Gas Resource Development and its Problems and Countermeasure

Since 1990, as a result of the reserve of China increasing 1500 million tons annually, the oil production has been increasing stable. It is estimated that the reserve growth in new area will keep stable and the production will increase a little. After the new evaluation, the recoverable resource of natural gas is about 14 trillion cubic meter. And now the gas reserve and production in China is increasing at a high speed, however the gas exploration is still at early phase. It is estimated that the natural gas reserve will increase quickly, and up to 2020, the recoverable reserve will be 5.6 trillion cubic meter. The proved rate is 40%, and production will be quickly increased to 80 billion cubic meter in 2010, and 120 billion cubic meter in 2020. After several years' endeavor, China's oil and gas technology is developed quickly, and accelerating the growth of reserve. At the same time of oil and gas reserve increasing quickly, the development of oil & gas encountered a series of problems. To deal with these problems, the authors put forward the thoughts on China's Sustainable Development of Oil & Gas, including intensifying five major fields exploration, accelerating the development of gas, enlarging international trade and cooperation, developing non-conventional resources and encouraging to use substitute resources and taking effective measures to save energy. After executing these measures, the China's oil and gas industry will be developed more healthily.