基于集对分析与可变模糊集的城市水资源安全评价

城市水资源安全定量评价对于制定合理的城市水资源发展战略,促进水资源可持续利用,实现社会经济可持续发展圴具有重要的意义。为此,建立了包括水量安全、水环境安全和社会经济安全3个子系统在内的城市水资源安全评价指标体系。借助于层次分析法和熵值法得到了评价指标的组合权重,构建了集对分析与可变模糊集耦合的城市水资源安全评价模型,并以广州市为例,应用该模型分析了2004～2014年广州市水资源安全状况及其主要障碍因子。分析结果表明:广州市水资源安全水平总体上在不断提高,安全级别从较不安全上升至临界安全水平;水量安全是影响广州市水资源安全的首要因素,人均水资源量、产水模数、客水比例等是阻碍水资源安全水平提升的主要障碍因子。评价模型能够较客观地反映城市水资源安全的时序演变特性和主要制约因素,评价结果比较贴近实际情况,可为城市水资源安全评价提供一种有效可行而又直观的方法。

Evaluation of urban water resources security based on set pair analysis and variable fuzzy set

Quantitative evaluation of urban water resources security has great significance for making reasonable development strategy of urban water resources, promoting sustainable utilization of water resources, realizing sustainable development of social economy. An index system of water resources security evaluation is established, including water resources quantity security, water environment security and social and economic security subsystems. Combined weights of indexes are determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy value method. The model of urban water resources security evaluation is constructed based on the set pair analysis (SPA) and the variable fuzzy sets (VFS). Water resources security of Guangzhou and its main obstacle factors are analyzed from 2004 to 2014. The result shows that there is a tendency of gradual improvement in water resources security conditions in Guangzhou, upgrading from "less safety" to "critical safety" level. The primary factor affecting water resources security is water resources quantity security. Main obstacles hindering water resources security level of Guangzhou are water resources quantity per capita, water resources quantity per unit area, and guest water proportion. Evaluation model is more objective in reflecting the temporal evolution characteristics of urban water resources security and main restrictive factors. The result is in line with reality. The proposed model provides a practical and intuitive way for evaluating urban water resources security.