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| 基于时间序列法的风电场风速预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 邵璠,孙育河,梁岚珍. 基于时间序列法的风电场风速预测研究[J]. 华东电力, 2008, 36(7) |
| 作者姓名： | 邵璠 孙育河 梁岚珍 |
| 作者单位： | 新疆大学,电气工程学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830008;北京联合大学,自动化学院,北京,100101 |
| 基金项目： | 新疆教育基金高新技术重点项目 |
| 摘 要： | 采用Box.Jenkins时间序列分析方法,通过Matlab软件,利用达坂城风电场30 m处,每10 min采集1次得到的风速数据,建立ARMA模型,阐述了数据预处理、模型参数识别及模型诊断、检验。实现提前1 h的风速预测,为更长时间(0.5~2 d)的风速预测提供理论基础。 |
| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 风速预测 ARMA模型 |
Wind speed forecast for wind farms based on time series |
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| SHAO Fan,SUN yu-he,LIANG Lan-zhen. Wind speed forecast for wind farms based on time series[J]. East China Electric Power, 2008, 36(7) | |
| Authors: | SHAO Fan SUN yu-he LIANG Lan-zhen |
| Affiliation: | SHAO Fan1,SUN yu-he1,LIANG Lan-zhen2 |
| Abstract: | By applying the time series method of Box.Jenkins and the Matlab software,the wind speed data acquired from Dabancheng Wind Farm every 10 minutes at the place where is 30 meters above the ground were used to establish ARMA model for wind speed forecast 1 hour ahead.The study can provide theoretic support for wind speed forecast of longer period(e.g.0.5~2 days) in advance. |
| Keywords: | time series wind speed forecast ARMA model |
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