基于蒙特卡洛法的电动汽车负荷预测建模

电动汽车大规模接入将对电网造成巨大影响，为采取有效措施，需对其负荷进行预测。在研究我国电动汽车相关政策的基础上，从影响电动汽车负荷的主要因素入手，详细地分析了不同类型电动汽车在不同充电模式下的充电行为，建立了电动汽车负荷预测模型，并采用蒙特卡罗法抽取起始充电时间、充电起始荷电状态等因素进行仿真。根据北京市电动汽车发展情况，对北京市电动汽车的规模进行了预测，得到北京市电动汽车在工作日和节假日的日负荷曲线，并对结果进行了分析。分析结果表明：未来电动汽车的大规模接入将给电网带来大量的新增负荷，同时加大了电网负荷峰谷差，需对电动汽车充电负荷进行有效的控制。

Electric Vehicles Load Forecasting Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

Based on the research of related policies on electric vehicles and the development of electric vehicles in Beijing, the scale of electric vehicles in Beijing was predicted. Electric vehicles load forecasting model is established depend on the charging behavior of different types of electric vehicles. The Monte Carlo method is applied to extract the initial charging time, mileage and other factors to get the charging curve on weekdays and holidays. And the results were analyzed. The results show that the future of large-scale electric vehicle access to the grid will bring a lot of new load, while increasing the difference between peak and off-pick, an effective way to control electric ve- hicte charging load is needed.