高要水文站设计年径流计算研究

以高要水文站历史年径流序列为基础来进行设计年径流计算。在充分论证年径流序列保持一致性的基础上,以皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线为分布线型,以离差绝对值和最小为适线准则,分别采用了矩法、概率权重矩法、线性矩法、遗传算法、模拟退火算法、蚁群算法、粒子群算法、结合矩法的最大熵原理、结合线性矩法的最大熵原理等参数估计方法,对分布函数的均值、变差系数、偏态系数等参数进行了估计。结果表明,全部9种参数估计方法均表现较好,尤其以概率权重矩法、线性矩法、结合矩法的最大熵原理等表现最佳,经过对比,最终选取结合矩法的最大熵原理为参数估计方法。计算得出,高要水文断面在20%、10%、5%、2%、1%频率下的设计年径流量分别为8 004.69 m~3/s、8 668.16 m~3/s、9 238.63 m~3/s、9 905.44 m~3/s和10 364.72 m~3/s。研究成果可为流域未来水利工程规划设计和水资源管理等工作提供科学指导。

Study on design annual runoff of Gaoyao hydrology station

Based on the historical annual runoff series of Gaoyao station，the design annual runoff is calculated． On the basis of the stationary of the time series，the P－Ⅲ curve is used as the distribution function，and taken the minimum sum of absolute values of deviations as the fit criterion． We use a variety of parameter estimation methods to estimate the mean value，variation coefficient and skew coefficient of distribution function，including Method of Moment ( MOM) ，Probability Weighted Moment ( PWM) ，Linear Moment ( L－M) ，Genetic Algorithm ( GA) ，Simulated Annealing Algorithm ( SA) ，Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm ( ACO) ，Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm ( PSO) ，Principle of Maximum Entropy combined with Method of Moment ( POMEMOM) ，Principle of Maximum Entropy combined with Linear Moment ( POMELM) ． The results show that all parameter estimation methods performed well，especially the PWM，L－M and POMEMOM． After comparison，the POMEMOM is finally chosen as the parameter estimation method． According to the results，the designed annual runoff of Gaoyao section at frequencies of 20%，10%，5%，2%，and 1% are 8 004. 69 m3 / s，8 668. 16 m3 / s，9 238. 63 m3 / s，9 905. 44 m3 / s and 10 364. 72 m3 / s． The study can provide scientific guidance for the planning and design of water conservancy projects and water resources management in the future．