核电在中国中长期能源供应体系中的作用

研究核电发展问题，需要放置于能源电力的宏观体系中予以综合考量。文章研究了中国电力的供需形势，建立了电力供需平衡模型，对2040年之前的电力供需情况进行了预测分析。在综合考虑11类边界条件，并参考主要发达经济体能源发展历史的基础上，建立了中国6类一次能源消费预测模型，对2040年之前的一次能源消费情况进行了预测，给出了“核能低值”、“核能高值”两类预测结果。分析了世界核电的发展历史，对其进行了五个阶段划分，并论述了各阶段的核电发展情况、发展驱动力、影响因素等问题，还研究了美国、法国、德国等三个典型国家的核电发展历史，总结了经验教训。研究了世界铀矿资源量及储用比情况，为衡量铀资源的宏观转化效率，定义了铀资源转化比指标，并对主要经济体进行了对比研究。上述研究的主要结论为:(1)中国化石能源消费将在2030年之前见顶，一次能源消费将进入缓慢增长或维持阶段；(2)中长期来看，核能、非水可再生能源将分担新增能源消费和化石能源替代需求；(3)在电力供应严重过剩的情况下，核电的大规模开工建设预计将延至2025年以后；(4)至2040年，中国一次能源消费总量预计将达到57.4亿吨标准煤当量(tce)，其中，核能消费占比在4.5%～7.5%之间，非水可再生能源消费占比在13.6%～16.6%之间；(5)总体来看，世界拥有充足的铀矿资源储备，可满足“铀基”核能的长期发展，此外，2040年之前的铀矿资源价格也将难以回到2007年的高位；(6)中国铀资源转化比仅为世界平均值的56.6%，需要在乏燃料处理及燃料循环利用方面提升技术水平和处理能力。

The Role of Nuclear Power in China's Medium and Long Term Energy Supply System

Studying the development of nuclear power needs to be placed in the macro energy system to take comprehensive consideration. In this paper, the supply and demand situation of China power supply is studied. And the power supply and demand balance model is established. Considering eleven kinds of boundary conditions and the reference basis of major developed economies energy development history, this paper establishes six energy consumption prediction models of primary energy consumption before 2040, and gives "nuclear low value" and "nuclear high value" two kinds of prediction results. This paper analyzes the history of the development of nuclear power in the world. According to the development characteristic of five stages, the paper discusses the driving force, influencing factors and other issues of deferent development stages of nuclear power. In the meanwhile, this paper also studies nuclear development history in three typical countries. In this paper, the world uranium resources and storage ratio are studied. At the same time, the conversion ratio of uranium resources is defined to measure the transformation efficiency of uranium resources. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Chinese fossil energy consumption will peak in 2030, and primary energy consumption will enter or maintain the slow growth stage; (2) In the long term, nuclear energy and non-water renewable energy will share the new energy consumption and the substitution of fossil energy needs; (3) In power surplus situation, large-scale construction of nuclear power is expected to be postponed until 2025; (4) To 2040, total energy consumption Chinese is expected to reach 5.74×109 tce, and the nuclear energy consumption accounts for between 4.5% to 7.5%, and non-water renewable energy consumption accounts for more than 13.6% to 16.6%; (5) In overall, the world has plenty of uranium resources to meet the "uranium based" nuclear long-term development. In addition, the price of uranium resources before 2040 will not be returned to the high level in 2007; (6) Transformation of uranium resources in China is only 56.6% of the world average. And there is the need to improve the technical level and processing capacity in the spent fuel treatment and fuel cycle utilization.