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A Maple package for improved global mapping forecast
Authors:H Carli  LGS Duarte  LACP da Mota
Affiliation:Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Física, Depto. de Física Teórica, 20559-900 Rio de Janeiro–RJ, Brazil
Abstract:We present a Maple implementation of the well known global approach to time series analysis and some further developments designed to improve the computational efficiency of the forecasting capabilities of the approach. This global approach can be summarized as being a reconstruction of the phase space, based on a time ordered series of data obtained from the system. After that, using the reconstructed vectors, a portion of this space is used to produce a mapping, a polynomial fitting, through a minimization procedure, that represents the system and can be employed to forecast further entries for the series. In the present implementation, we introduce a set of commands, tools, in order to perform all these tasks. For example, the command VecTS deals mainly with the reconstruction of the vector in the phase space. The command GfiTS deals with producing the minimization and the fitting. ForecasTS uses all these and produces the prediction of the next entries. For the non-standard algorithms, we here present two commands: IforecasTS and NiforecasTS that, respectively deal with the one-step and the NN-step forecasting. Finally, we introduce two further tools to aid the forecasting. The commands GfiTS and AnalysTS, basically, perform an analysis of the behavior of each portion of a series regarding the settings used on the commands just mentioned above.
Keywords:Time series analysis  Global fitting  Symbolic computation  Forecast
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