| 系统优化的GM(1,1)模型在大坝位移预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑雪琴,秦栋.系统优化的GM(1,1)模型在大坝位移预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(4):76-77,126. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑雪琴 秦栋 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098;河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098;河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079046,50909041,50809025,50879024); 国家科技支撑计划课题基金资助项目(2008BAB29B03,2008BAB29B06); 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项基金资助项目(2009586012,2009586912,2010585212); 中央高校基本科研业务费基金资助项目(2009B08514,2010B20414,2010B01414,2010B14114) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的缺陷,以陈村大坝为例,根据最小二乘原理提出了以GM(1,1)的一次累加生成建模序列所有分量的拟合误差平方和最小为约束条件,求得新灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的最优初始值,改进了原GM(1,1)模型的背景值及灰度值,并与传统GM(1,1)模型做了比较.数值仿真结果表明,新模型精度较高,预测效...
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 传统灰色GM(1 1)模型 优化GM(1 1)模型 大坝位移 预测 |
Application of GM(1,1) Model to Dam Displacement Prediction Based on System Optimization |
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| ZHENG Xueqin,QIN Dong.Application of GM(1,1) Model to Dam Displacement Prediction Based on System Optimization[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2011,29(4):76-77,126. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Xueqin QIN Dong |
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| Affiliation: | ZHENG Xueqin1,2,3,QIN Dong1,3(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China,2.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety,3.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,China) |
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| Abstract: | Regarding the defects of traditional gray GM(1,1) model,a new GM(1,1) prediction model is proposed to gain the initial optimal value of Chencun dam by minimizing fitting error sum squares of 1-AGO components with the principle of least square.And the background value and gray value of the original GM(1,1) model are improved.Then it compares with the traditional GM(1,1) model.Numerical simulation results show that the new model has higher precision and good prediction effect. |
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| Keywords: | grey system traditional gray GM(1 1) model optimal GM(1 dam displacement prediction |
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