| 河道洪水演进的分类多模型组合预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张弛,周惠成,王本德,蒋云钟.河道洪水演进的分类多模型组合预报方法[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2008,40(8):1307-1310. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张弛 周惠成 王本德 蒋云钟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 大连理工大学,土木水利学院,大连,116024
2. 中国水利水电科学研究院,水利资源研究所,北京,100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家科技支撑计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高河道洪水演进预报精度,同时发挥各类预报模型的优点,提出一种组合预报方法,根据实际流域情况和资料情况选择多种洪水演进预报模型,针对不同的流量级别,利用多目标模糊优选方法选出特定条件下预报较准的模型进行分类组合预报,然后根据流量级别隶属度对各类预报结果加以组合.并以嫩江流域为实例,对组合预报方法的精度进行了验证.
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预报 水文预报 多目标模糊优选 神经网络 模糊推理 |
Combined forecast method for classified forecast of river flood propagation |
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| ZHANG Chi,ZHOU Hui-cheng,WANG Ben-de,JIANG Yun-zhong.Combined forecast method for classified forecast of river flood propagation[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2008,40(8):1307-1310. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Chi ZHOU Hui-cheng WANG Ben-de JIANG Yun-zhong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China,2.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydrpower Research,Biejing 100044,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the forecast precision of river flood propagation and exert the advantages of various forecast models,a combined forecast method is proposed in this paper,which is formulated by selecting different models for flood forecast according to the real drainage area and data situation.Aiming at different flow ranks,a multi-objective fuzzy optimization method is used to the model with fine accuracy at certain circumstance for the classified forecast.Then the classified forecast results are combined according to the membership degree of flow ranks.The combined forecast method is validated by taking the drainage area of Nen River for instance. |
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| Keywords: | combined forecast hydrologic forecast multi-objective fuzzy optimization neural network fuzzy reasoning |
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