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| 作物生育期降雨量预测的灰色自记忆模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 李荣峰,沈冰,张金凯.作物生育期降雨量预测的灰色自记忆模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2005,38(3):19-22. |
| 作者姓名： | 李荣峰 沈冰 张金凯 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学水电学院,陕西,西安,710048;山西省水利科学研究所,山西,太原,030002 2. 西安理工大学水电学院,陕西,西安,710048 3. 山西省水利科学研究所,山西,太原,030002 |
| 基金项目： | 国家863计划项目(编号:2002AA2Z4311). |
| 摘 要： | 根据灰色系统理论得出作物生育期降雨序列的GM(1,1)微分方程,建立了作物生育期降雨量的灰色自记忆预测模型.将该模型应用于冬小麦和玉米生育期降雨量拟合及预测,结果表明,这种基于灰色微分方程又利用了多个观测往值信息的预测模型具有较高的计算精度. |
| 关 键 词： | 作物生育期降雨量 灰色微分方程 自记忆预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-8844(2005)03-019-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年12月11 |
Self-memory grey model for predicting precipitation of crop growth period |
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| LI Rong-feng,SHEN Bing,ZHAN Jin-kai.Self-memory grey model for predicting precipitation of crop growth period[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2005,38(3):19-22. | |
| Authors: | LI Rong-feng SHEN Bing ZHAN Jin-kai |
| Affiliation: | LI Rong-feng~ |
| Abstract: | GM(1,1)differential equation of the precipitation time series of crop growth period was attained based on grey theory. The self-memory grey model for predicting precipitation of crop growth period was established; and the fitting and forecast for the precipitation of growth period of winter wheat and corn were performed with this model. The results show that the model based on differential equation as well as including historical information has the advantage of high accuracy. |
| Keywords: | precipitation time series of crop growth period grey differential equation self-memory prediction model |
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