太湖流域水资源承载能力模糊综合评价

在充分考虑太湖流域水资源开发利用现状及社会经济发展状况的基础上,采用驱动力-压力-状态-影响-反应模型,突出生态环境影响因子,建立符合太湖流域自身特点的水资源承载能力综合评价指标体系,并按照水资源状态、水资源与社会经济、水资源与生态环境3个方面对指标进行分类,运用层次分析法计算各指标权重,对太湖流域2000—2006年水资源承载能力进行模糊综合评价。评价结果表明,太湖流域水资源承载能力总体水平处于适载与超载的临界状态,提升空间有限。

Fuzzy assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Taihu Basin

Based on fully considering the status of water resources development and utilization and the socio-economic development in the Taihu Basin, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the water resources carrying capacity was established by using Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response （DPSIR） model, which put emphasis on the ecological environment impact factors and met the characteristics of the Taihu Basin. The indexes were classified according to water resources status, water resources and socio-economic and water resources and ecological environment. The AHP method was used to calculate the weights of each index and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water resource carrying capacity in the Taihu Basin was carried out from 2000 to 2006. The evaluation results indicated that the overall level of the water resources carrying capacity in the Taihu Basin was contained in a critical state with the fitness and the overload, and its enhancement room was limited.