封闭油藏动态及可采储量的一种预测模型

当油田开发进入中后期时，对其经济可采储量的预测，是进行油田开发评价的重要内容。从分析封闭油藏累积产油量与地层压力的相关曲线分布特征及其统计规律入手，在机理上对曲线分布特征的产生给予明确的解释与说明。基于对生命体系生长曲线的研究，引入广义Usher 模型，给出了一种适用于封闭油藏溶解气驱阶段关于油藏动态指标预测的新模型。采用非线性最小二乘法对模型求解，即可确定出模型的各项拟合参数及可采储量。经实例验证，是行之有效的，并具有计算简单、操作方便及预测精度高等特点。

A Model for Prediction of Constant Volume Sealed Reservoir Performance and Recoverable Reserves

It is an important task for forecasting the economically recoverable reserves in oilfield development evaluation when oilfield goes into the middle and late development stage. This paper analyzes and explains the correlative curve distribution characteristic between accumulative oil production and reservoir pressure in sealed reservoirs and its statistical regularity. Based on the study of growth curvature in life system, it introduces a general Usher model and affords a new model suiting for depletion drive stage in sealed reservoirs to predict relevant dynamic targets. By using nonlinear least-squares method to solve the new model, all the fitting parameters and the recoverable reserves can be acquired. The case study shows that this model is effective for use, simple for calculation and precise for prediction.