基于Weibull时间序列函数与负指数法的动态沉陷预计

为了探讨采矿过程中受时间和空间影响的地表移动变形的发生发展机理,提出了一种基于Weibull时间序列函数与负指数法的动态沉陷预计方法。该方法以研究描述地表沉陷区观测点下沉变化过程的Weibull时间序列函数为基础,认为Weibull时间序列函数在描述地表观测点沉陷的动态过程时,不仅能较好地拟合下沉-时间(wt)曲线,而且由此推出的速度-时间(v-t)曲线和加速度-时间(a-t)曲线也能够很好地符合地表沉陷随时间变化的物理过程。基于实测资料确定的负指数法在描述地表移动盆地时具有实践应用性强、预计精度高等特点,给出了走向主断面半无限开采负指数法的下沉预计公式及参数求取方法。根据主断面动态沉陷模型的一般形式,将Weibull时间序列函数与负指数预计函数相结合,建立了充分采动条件下沉陷盆地走向主断面的动态地表下沉、倾斜、曲率、水平移动和水平变形模型,并对某煤矿的地表动态沉陷进行了预计,结果表明,预计结果与实测结果具有很好的一致性,可为实现矿区地表动态沉陷预计提供参考。

Dynamic Subsidence Prediction Method Based on Negative Exponential Method and Weibull Time Sequence Function

In order to analyze the occurrence and development mechanism of surface movement and deformation，a dynamic subsidence prediction method based on negative exponential method and Weibull time sequence function is proposed.The method is based on researching the Weibull time sequence function that describes the variation process of observation points sinking in surface subsidence area，and it is considered that while describing the process of dynamic subsidence of the observation points in the ground，the Weibull time sequence function well fit the subsidence-time (w-t) curve，and the speed-time (v-t) curve and acceleration time (a-t) curve that are deduced by the subsidence-time (w-t) curve also meet the physical process of surface subsidence changes with time effectively.The negative exponential method based on the measured data has the characteristics of strong practical applicability and high prediction accuracy while describing the surface movement basin，the main section of semi-infinite mining negative exponential method subsidence prediction formulas and parameters calculation method are given.According to the general form of the main section of the dynamic subsidence model，the dynamic surface subsidence，tile，curvature，horizontal movement and deformation model of the main section of subsidence basin under the fully mining conditions are established based on combining with the Weibull time sequence function and negative exponential subsidence function，and the dynamic subsidence of a coal mine is predicted.The results show that the prediction results is consistent with the measured results，therefore，the prediction method proposed in this paper can provide some reference for the prediction of dynamic subsidence.