城市地下空间开发强度预测模型研究

城市地下空间属于城市空间资源的一个重要组成部分,伴随城市人口密度的不断增长和社会经济水平的逐渐提高,为了拓展城市空间以改善城市生活环境,开发利用地下空间成为城市发展的必然趋势。笔者以国内10个城市(北京、上海、武汉、南京等)的地下空间开发作为研究对象,分析了地下空间开发强度和表征城市地下空间需求的人口密度及表征地下空间开发能力的地均GDP之间的相关性,并在此基础上提出了城市地下空间开发强度预测模型,揭示了不同条件下影响城市地下空间开发强度的决定性因素。本研究有助于不同城市根据自身的发展情况因地制宜,确定合理的地下空间开发强度和地下空间利用规划。

A Forecasting Model of Urban Underground Space Development Intensity

Urban underground space is an important part of urban spatial resources. With the continuous growth of urban population density and the gradual improvement of social and economic level, it is an inevitable trend to use urban underground space in order to expand urban space to improve urban living environment. On the basis of data from 10 Chinese urban (Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Nanjing and etc.) underground space (UUS) development, the paper presents the correlation between underground space development intensity and population density that characterizes the demand of UUS and GDP that characterizes the ability to utilize UUS. Based on the analysis of the statistical data, the paper puts forward the forecasting model of urban underground space development intensity. It also reveals the determining factors that affect the development intensity of urban underground space under different conditions. This study contributes to formulation of a priority to develop certain UUS development intensity and reasonable function in different cities during different periods of the underground space development.