首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     

面向碳中和的中国电能替代发展路径规划方法探讨
引用本文:张静,李昊,李文,张洪秩,王博. 面向碳中和的中国电能替代发展路径规划方法探讨[J]. 电力建设, 2022, 43(9): 47-53. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.09.005
作者姓名:张静  李昊  李文  张洪秩  王博
作者单位:中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市100192;北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京市100081
基金项目:国家电网公司总部科技项目(5100-202155289A-0-0-00)
摘    要:“碳达峰”和“碳中和”是党中央、国务院统筹国际国内两个大局做出的重大战略决策。电能替代作为能源清洁化利用的主要形式,是实现我国碳中和目标的核心路径之一。文章回顾了国内外电能替代发展历程,总结中国推进电能替代工作面临的挑战。针对目前电能替代路径规划存在的理论和分析工具缺乏问题,提出了宏微观耦合的电能替代综合评估模型框架:一是构建典型行业数据库,为各行业电能替代分析提供基础;二是宏观上将共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic pathways,SSPs)情景参数中国化,作为社会经济发展情景输出;三是将技术参数中国化,实现微观参数校准;四是耦合宏微观市场,建立动态反馈、双轮驱动机制。该研究有助于完善电能替代领域理论体系,为稳妥有序实施电能替代提供科学方法论支撑。

关 键 词:碳中和  电能替代  发展路径  综合评估模型
收稿时间:2022-03-23

Discussion on the Pathways of China’s Electrification Polices to Pursue the Carbon Neutralization Target
ZHANG Jing,LI Hao,LI Wen,ZHANG Hongzhi,WANG Bo. Discussion on the Pathways of China’s Electrification Polices to Pursue the Carbon Neutralization Target[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2022, 43(9): 47-53. DOI: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.09.005
Authors:ZHANG Jing  LI Hao  LI Wen  ZHANG Hongzhi  WANG Bo
Affiliation:1. China Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100192, China2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:Carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets are momentous strategical decisions issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to coordinate the two overall situations at home and abroad. As the main form of clean energy utilization, electrification is one of the main pathways to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization in China. This paper reviews the development of electrification in China and abroad, and summarizes the challenges in China according to the development status. In view of the lack of theoretical and analytical tools in the current planning for electrical energy substitution path, a macro and micro coupled integrated assessment model framework of electrification is proposed in this paper. The first is to build a database of typical industries to provide a basis for the analysis of electrical energy substitution potential in each industry. The second is to obtain the Chinese parameters of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the macro level and export them as socio-economic development scenarios. The third is to obtain the Chinese technical parameters to achieve parameter calibration at the micro level. The fourth is to couple the macro and micro markets to establish a dynamic feedback and two-wheel drive mechanism. This study is helpful to improve the theoretical system of electric energy substitution and provide scientific methodology support for the steady and orderly implementation of electrification in the future.
Keywords:carbon neutralization  electrification policy  development pathway  integrated assessment model  
本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《电力建设》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《电力建设》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号