实时洪水预报中的雨量短期预报

为提高实时洪水预报的精度，延长实时预报预见期，针对目前预见期内降雨不作处理的状况，提出了对预见期内的雨量进行短期预报的思路．经分析比较发现，采用相邻时段雨量相关关系预报预见期内的雨量，对延长洪水预报预见期有一定的作用．在针对亭下水库流域进行试验时，经对不同预见期的预报结果分析后证明，此方法相对于不预报雨量的方法有更高的精度．且延长了预报的预见期．

Short-time rainfall forecast for real-time flood forecast

In order to improve the precision of the flood forecast and prolong the earliness of forecast for the real-time forecast, a thinking of the short-time rainfall forecast for predicting the precipitation during the earliness of forecast is introduced in view of the situation that no any treatments are made for the precipitation within the earliness of forecast hereinafter.It is found with the analysis and the comparison concerned, the earliness of forecast for the flood forecast can be prolonged by forecasting the precipitation within the earliness of forecast with the relationship of the precipitations during the adjacent time intervals.This approach is demonstrated with the analysis made on the forecasting results of various earliness of forecast during the test conducted on the basin of Tingxia Reservoir that it has higher precision and prolongs the earliness of forecast for the forecast compared with that of no precipitation is considered for the earliness of forecast.