| Abstract: | This contribution concerns the development of prices in the owneroccupied sector in the Netherlands. The analysis focuses
on the development over two decades, from 1975 to 1995. That period may be divided into a number of phases of growth and stagnation,
as defined by fluctuating house prices. Some explanations for these fluctuations are offered here. These include the influence
of regulation by government and other major institutions; demographic developments; developments in the supply of owner-occupied
dwellings; developments in a number of economic variables; and the dynamics of the market. Then an attempt is made to estimate
how prices will develop in the future. It should be kept in mind that this forecast is based on statistical relations that
were calculated with reference to the past. In the event those relations change in the future, the model estimated here would
not yield good predictions.
Peter Boelhouwer is researcher at the OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology,
The Netherlands. His research focus has been general housing policy, housing finance and comparative housing research.
Johan Conijn is director of the OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
His research focus has been general housing economics, housing finance, and general housing policy.
Paul de Vries is assistant-researcher OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology,
The Netherlands. His research focus has been building market and statistical analyses. |
