创新驱动我国经济高质量发展研究——经济政策不确定性的调节效应

如何促进我国经济高质量发展是当前学术界和政府部门关注的重要议题,而经济政策不确定性指数趋高已成为新时代经济发展需要考虑的重要影响因素。在现有理论研究成果的基础上,从绿色全要素生产率视角出发,构建创新驱动区域经济高质量发展的计量回归模型,进一步引入经济政策不确定性作为调节变量,分析这一重要因素是否会影响创新驱动经济高质量发展的有效性,并采用我国2005-2016年30个省份面板数据,利用IVTobit方法进行实证检验,结果发现:(1)创新对区域经济高质量发展具有显著的促进作用;(2)经济政策不确定性对区域经济高质量发展具有显著的抑制作用,但是经济政策不确定性会正向调节创新对区域经济高质量发展的影响,这表明在EPU较高的环境中,地区会通过投入创新来化解市场风险,EPU与R&D形成了良好的耦合效应;(3)创新对经济高质量发展的影响以及经济政策不确定性的调节作用具有明显的区域异质性。研究的政策启示是,政府应鼓励企业提高研发投入以应对不确定的政策环境,经济政策的调整应以促进企业创新为前提,而且,各地区应制定差异化的政策,其中,中、西部地区应适度降低经济政策的不确定性,稳定市场预期。

Research on the Innovation-Driven High Quality Economic Development in China:The Moderating Roles of Economic Policy Uncertainty

It is an important issue both the academics and the government department are concerned with how to promote the high quality economic development in China,and the increasing economic policy uncertainty index has become a significant situational factor to be considered in the economic development of the new era.This paper attempts to construct an econometric regression model of regional high quality development affected by innovation,on the basis of the existing theoretical research findings as well as from the perspective of green total factor productivity.Meanwhile,economic policy uncertainty(EPU)is introduced in the model as a moderating variable for the purpose of finding out if this important factor will affect the effectiveness of the high quality development of an innovation-driven economy.Adopted in the study is the panel data of thirty provinces in China from 2005 to 2016,and an empirical test is conducted by using IVTobit method.The results show that(1)innovation has a significant promoting effect on the regional high quality development.(2)EPU has a significant inhibitory effect on the regional high quality development,but it will positively regulate the impact of innovation on green high quality development,and(3)the influence of innovation on high quality development and the moderating effect of EPU have obvious regional heterogeneity.The policy implications include that the government needs to encourage enterprises in their improvement of the R&D efforts to better deal with the uncertain policy environment,and that the adjustment of the economic policies needs to become the premise for promoting the innovation endeavor.Furthermore,the different regions of the country need to formulate differentiated policies against their respective backgrounds,with the central and western regions in particular need to reduce their EPU and stabilize the market expectations there.