| 负荷求导法在超短期负荷预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵成旺,顾幸生,严军. 负荷求导法在超短期负荷预测中的应用[J]. 电力系统及其自动化学报, 2006, 18(5): 5-9 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵成旺 顾幸生 严军 |
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| 作者单位： | 华东理工大学自动化研究所,上海,200237;华东理工大学自动化研究所,上海,200237;华东理工大学自动化研究所,上海,200237 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（60274043）;上海市科委重大科技攻关项目（04dz11008） |
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| 摘 要： | 负荷求导法是超短期电力负荷预测的一种新方法。以负荷求导法为基础,对其中的不足进行了改进,并根据分形理论和相似日理论提出了一种历史数据处理的新方法:对历史负荷分类取样同时进行伪数据辨识处理,以提高预测精度。算法具有实现简单、运算迅速、精度高等特点。仿真表明了改进模型的有效性和算法的可行性,对于超短期负荷预测这类需要反应迅速的问题,采用本文提供的方法进行预测是可靠且非常有效的。
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷求导法 超短期负荷预测 加权平均 分形 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8930（2006）05-0005-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-03-23 |
Application of Load Derivation to Ultra-Short Term Load Forecasting |
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| ZHAO Cheng-wang,GU Xing-sheng,YAN Jun. Application of Load Derivation to Ultra-Short Term Load Forecasting[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA, 2006, 18(5): 5-9 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Cheng-wang GU Xing-sheng YAN Jun |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Automation,East China and Technology, wang, Unive Shanghai 200237, YAN Jun rsity of Science China |
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| Abstract: | A novel method called load derivation is introduced for ultra-short term load forecasting of power system.On the basis of the method,this paper presents a new data disposal approach using fractal theory and similar historical day data.Historical data classification along with pseudo data identification is implemented at the same time.It has the features of easy realization,quick operation and high precision.Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the method and its improvement.It is proved that the proposed method is reliable and effective for ultra-short term load forecasting which needs to react rapidly. |
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| Keywords: | load derivation ultra-short term load forecasting weighted average fractal |
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