近59年广西气象要素时空变化特征分析

基于广西25个气象台站1958-2016年的气象资料,采用Daniel趋势检验法、Lee-Heghinan变异检验法、Morlet小波分析法、R/S分析法和克里金插值等方法,对广西年日照时数、年平均风速、年降水量、年平均相对湿度和年平均气温的时空变化进行了分析。结果表明:近59年广西年日照时数、年平均风速和年平均相对湿度呈减小趋势,年降水量和年平均气温表现出微弱增加趋势;各气象要素分别在1979年、1974年、2011年、2002年和1997年发生变异;各气象要素均表现出多时间尺度耦合的复杂特性,第一主周期分别为22a、29a、31a、26a和13a;各气象要素的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明未来变化趋势将继续与过去变化趋势保持一致;在空间上,广西年日照时数由西北向东南递减,年平均风速、年降水量、年平均相对湿度和年平均气温由北向南递增。

Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of meteorological factors in Guangxi in recent 59 years

Based on the meteo rolog ical data of 25 met eo ro lo gical stat ions in Guangx i fr om 1958 to 2016, w e ado pted Daniel trend test method, Lee2H eg hinan test, Morlet wav elet analy sis, R/ S analysis, and Kriging interpolation to analy ze the spatial and tem2 por al v ariat ions of the sunshine duratio n, w ind speed, precipit ation, relat ive hum idity, and temperature data in Guang xi. T he re2 sults show ed that in the past 59 years, the annual sunshine duration, annual av erag e w ind speed, and annual av erag e r elativ e hu2 midit y show ed a decr easing tr end; the annual precipitation and annual aver age t em perat ur e show ed a slight rising tr end; these facto rs r espectively had abr upt chang es in 1979, 1974, 2011, 2002 and 1997; they all show ed the complex char act eristic o f multi - time sca le coupling, and their first main periods w ere 22 a, 29 a, 31 a, 26 a and 13 a, respectiv ely ; the H urst indexes o f these met eo ro lo gical fact ors w ere all g reater than 01 5, indicating that the futur e tr end w ill still be consistent w ith the past tr end. In space, the annual sunshine durat ion in Guangx i declined fr om the northwest to the so utheast, wher eas the annual aver age w ind speed, annual precipitat ion, annual aver age relativ e humidity , and annual aver age temper at ur e showed a rising tr end from north to south.