技术进步、结构调整与电力能源消费效率

本文采用对数平均的LMDI方法对1998～2007年的电能强度变动趋势进行了分解分析。结果表明:电能强度的降低主要得益于技术进步的贡献,尽管技术进步的贡献呈下降趋势;而产业结构变化,无论六大类产业结构还是两位数产业结构对电能强度的下降均具有抑制作用。文章分析了2001年以来电能强度小幅上升的原因,并进一步探讨了提高电力消费效率的对策。

Technological Development, Structural Change and Electricity Consumption Efficiency

The approach of logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） was used to decompose changes in electricity intensity in the period of 1998-2007. The results indicate that technological change is confirmed as the dominant contributor in the decline of electricity intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure, either in 6 sectors or 41 sub-sectors, raised the intensity after 2001. The reason of increased in electricity intensity after 2001 was analysed. And some advices was talked about for improvement of electricity consumption efficiency.