Causality between energy and output in the long-run |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia;2. Department of Economic History, Lund University, P.O. Box 7083, SE-220 07 Lund, Sweden;1. Assistant Professor. Department of Economics, 100 W College St, Denison University, Granville, OH 43023 United States;2. Associate Professor, Department of Economics, 260 S. Central Campus Drive, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 United States;1. School of Geography and Planning, Cardiff University, Glamorgan Building, King Edward VII Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3WA, UK;2. Visiting Professor, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia |
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| Abstract: | Though there is a very large literature examining whether energy use Granger causes economic output or vice versa, it is fairly inconclusive. Almost all existing studies use relatively short time series, or panels with a relatively small time dimension. We apply Granger causality and cointegration techniques to a Swedish time series dataset spanning 150 years to test whether increases in energy use and energy quality have driven economic growth or vice versa. We show that these techniques are very sensitive to variable definition, choice of additional variables in the model, sample periods and size, and the introduction of structural breaks. The relationship between energy and growth may also have changed over time – energy causes output in the full sample while output causes energy use in recent smaller samples. Energy prices have a more robust causal impact on both energy use and output. |
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