区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价及其影响因素

为加强区域农业旱灾风险管理,对河南、山东省农业旱灾脆弱性进行评价。结合相关文献与区域实际情况,从敏感性和恢复力2个角度选取12个指标,建立评价指标体系;运用熵值法和综合指数法构建旱灾脆弱性评价模型,计算区域内各城市的农业旱灾脆弱性指数;最后采用因子贡献度模型对关键影响因素进行识别。结果表明:研究区农业旱灾脆弱性级差化特征明显,总体处于中脆弱度状态;农业旱灾脆弱性空间差异显著,河南省脆弱性程度高于山东省;河南省农业旱灾脆弱性的主要影响因素有农业人口比重、复种指数和农村居民人均收入,山东省农业旱灾脆弱性的主要影响因素是有效灌溉面积比重、单位耕地面积农业用水量和人均财政收入。

Assessment of regional agricultural drought vulnerability and main influencing factors

To improve the risk management of regional drought disaster, evaluation of agricultural drought vulnerability in Henan and Shandong was conducted. Combined with relevant literature and regional reality, 12 indicators in two perspectives of sensibility and resilience were selected to establish an evaluation index system. The indexes of agricultural drought vulnerability for cities in the study area were calculated by a vulnerability model based on entropy value method and comprehensive index method. Key influencing factors were identified by a factor contribution model. The results show that, relative significant disparity with different vulnerability levels exists among cities in the study area and the overall vulnerability level is moderate. The spatial difference of agricultural drought vulnerability is obvious and the vulnerability in Henan is higher than that in Shandong. The main influencing factors of agricultural drought vulnerability in Henan are the proportion of agriculture population, multiple-crop index and the income of rural residents per capita. The main influencing factors in Shandong are the proportion of effective irrigation area, agricultural water consumption per unit area and the average financial income.