On forecasting large and infrequent snow avalanches

Snow avalanches that threaten a highway or a residential area are often large avalanches that have a return period > 1 year. Danger assessment strongly relies on precipitation data since these avalanches are typically triggered by major snow storms. Given the extensive protection work that is in place in the European Alps, the avalanche control service (also called avalanche commission) responsible for danger assessment will usually monitor the avalanche situation throughout the winter, but only become active in case of a major snow fall. Related safety concepts describing the procedures and measures to be taken in a given danger situation are therefore often based on threshold values for new snow. By analysing the avalanche occurrence of a major avalanche path, we show that forecasting based on new snow amounts involves high uncertainty. Whereas the return period of an avalanche to, for example, the road was about 5 years, the return period for the corresponding new snow depth was substantially smaller, in our case slightly less than 2 years. Similar proportions were found for a number of other avalanche paths with different snow climate. The return period of the critical new snow depth was about 2–5 times smaller than the return period of the avalanche. This proportion is expected to increase with increasing return period. Hence, based on the return period of an avalanche path a first estimate for the critical new snow depth can be made. With a return period of the critical new snow depth of 1–2 years, avalanche prediction for individual avalanche path becomes very challenging since the false alarm ratio is expected to be high.