2007年1～5月份我国钢管行业供需情况及下半年预测

2007年,由于国家淘汰落后产能及节能减排的宏观调控政策和出口退税调整政策的出台,上半年我国钢管市场供需形势呈小幅波动态势.1～5月份,高技术含量、高附加值钢管产品出口量有了较大幅度的增长,普通钢管出口量也有增长;在进口的主要钢管品种中,无缝油井管和锅炉管进口量同比有大幅度降低,但仍占无缝管进口总量的83.75%.说明高钢级、耐腐蚀、高抗挤毁、特殊扣套管和不锈钢及合金钢高压锅炉管等高技术含量、高附加值产品仍部分依赖进口.通过对2007年1～5月份我国钢管供需状况统计分析,预测了下半年钢管市场走向.下半年出台的政策对无缝管市场影响不是很大,出口量维持上半年的水平还是可能的.焊接钢管中,管径大于406.4 mm管线管出口退税率维持原来的13%,对其出口影响不大;管径小于406.4 mm的普通焊管和异形管,因取消了出口退税,市场竞争将更加激烈,价格将下浮波动.为此,下半年焊接管总体出口量将大幅度降低.针对下半年的形势预测,提出了应采取的应对策略.

Supply and Demand Circumstances of China's Pipe Industry from Jan. to May and Its Forecast of the Following Half Year

The supply and demand position of China pipe market appears small breadth fluctuating trends in the first half year due to China washed out the lagged production capacity and grand control policy of saving energy to reduce discharging as well as carried out adjusting of export drawback policy in 2007.The export quantity of pipes with high technical contents and high value added has greater increased and the export quantity of common pipes has also increased.Among the variety of importing main pipes,the importing quantity of seamless OCTG and boiler tube has greater decrease among that of the same ratio,however,it still amounts of 83.75% of the importing quantity of seamless pipes.This shows that casing with high grade,corrosion resistance,high anti-squeeze and special threads and stainless and alloy high-pressure boiler pipes,etc.,still rely on partial importing.The pipe market tends in the following half year is forecasted through statistics analyzing of the supply and demand position of China pipes from Jan.to May in 2007.The policy to be in forced has less influence to seamless pipe market in the following half year and it is also possible to maintain the level of export quantity in the first half year.The export drawback of pipeline pipe greater than OD 406.4mm will keep the same 13% and it will has less influence to its export among the welded pipes.The common welded pipes and rectangular pipes less than OD 406.4mm will compete violently and the price will decrease and fluctuating due to the cancel of export drawback.Therefore,the total export quantities of welded pipes will greater decrease.The countermeasures shall be adopted faced to the situation forecast in the following half year.