考虑端对端交易与预测误差的配电网实时能量平衡策略

端对端(peer-to-peer, P2P)交易下产消者发电具有较强的波动性和不确定性，其实时发电情况往往与日前计划存在偏差。针对采用连续双向拍卖机制(continuous double auction, CDA)的P2P交易下产消者出现的实时不平衡问题，提出了一种考虑P2P交易时序特征的本地能量平衡策略。系统运营商(system operator, SO)利用模型预测控制方法，以总体平衡成本最小为目标，考虑了SO和平衡服务提供方的成本效益约束，建立基于日前P2P能量市场和实时平衡市场协调运行机制的本地能量平衡策略模型。在实时平衡市场中，SO从责任方收取的补偿费用于从服务提供方购买灵活性平衡服务。仿真结果表明，平衡服务提供方帮助平衡了本地78%的实时不平衡电量。与电网平衡策略相比，本地化的实时平衡市场成本是电网平衡成本的三分之一。同时保障了平衡服务提供方及SO的收益，促进光伏能源消纳，利于P2P交易市场长久发展。

Real-time energy balancing strategy for distribution networks considering peer-to-peer trading and prediction errors

The power generation of prosumers in peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions has high volatility and uncertainty. Also the real-time power generation often deviates from the day-ahead generation scheduling. Given the real-time imbalance problem of prosumers in P2P transactions using the continuous double auction (CDA) mechanism, this paper proposes a local energy balance strategy considering the timing characteristics of P2P transactions. The system operator (SO) uses model predictive control in the real-time balancing market. A local energy balancing strategy model based on the coordinated operation mechanism of the day-ahead P2P energy market and the real-time balancing market is developed. The model aims to minimize the overall balancing cost and considers the cost-benefit constraints of the SO and balancing service provider. In the real-time balancing market, the compensation fee charged by the SO to the responsible party is equivalent to purchasing flexible balanced services from the service provider. Simulation results show that the balancing service provider balances 78% of the localized real-time unbalanced electricity. Compared with the grid balancing strategy, the local real-time balancing market cost is one third of the grid balancing cost. At the same time, the strategy proposed in this paper guarantees the revenue of balancing service providers and SOs, and promotes PV energy consumption. This will be beneficial for the long-term development of the P2P trading market.