基于Mixed logit模型的拥挤收费下交通方式分担率预测

分析了传统非集计模型存在的缺陷,提出利用mixed logit模型研究拥挤收费下交通方式分担率变化的思路。结合实际居民出行数据建立了基于mixed logit的交通方式选择模型,利用SAS软件进行蒙特卡罗模拟计算,标定了模型并进行了仿真分析。经验证,所建模型具有较高的命中率和可用性。加入拥挤收费影响因素进行敏感性分析,可得出不同拥挤收费费率下的交通方式分担率。应用该模型能为拥挤收费下的出行行为分析和交通影响研究以及其他交通需求管理政策的评价提供了方法。

Predicting traffic mode split under congestion pricing based on mixed logit model

The drawbacks of the traditional disaggregate models were analyzed and a new idea to investigate the traffic mode split under congestion pricing was proposed based on the mixed logit model. A traffic mode selection model was built based on the mixed logit model and the real inhabitant travel behavior data. The model was calibrated and simulated by the software SAS, including the Monte Carlo simulation. It was proved that the model is accurate and serviceable. The change of the traffic mode split under different congestion pricing rate can be predicted by the sensitivity analysis with the introduction of congestion pricing. The suggested model provides an approach to the analysis of travel behavior and the study of traffic impacts under the policy of congestion pricing, as well as the evaluation of other policies for travel demand management.