二氧化碳捕获与封存技术经济评估

相对于美国与欧洲,台湾天然气价格相对昂贵许多;因此使用燃煤IGCC+CCS在台湾将更具优势.本研究采用IEA参数设定与美国、欧洲及台湾燃料价格,以RETScreen进行技术经济分析,计算2020年IGCC、IGCC+CC(S)与NGCC电厂的上网电价、最适碳价及经济可行的时间.结果显示2020年NGCC上网电价(146.70美元/MWh)高于IGCC+CC电价(111.60美元/MWh)与考虑碳运输与储存成本的IGCC+CCS(127美元/MWh),其代表意义为尽管在没有碳税的前提下,IGCC+CCS在台湾仍较具优势.相比之下,美国因为天然气价格便宜,其IGCC+CCS在2030-2035年才有机会代替NGCC.台湾实证也显示当CO2价格在2020年为60～70USD/t-CO2,IGCC+CC较IGCC加上碳交易划算;当考虑碳运输与储存成本后,CO2价格必须高达90～100USD/t-CO2,IGCC+CCS才划算.本研究建议:1)将CCS技术纳入台湾能源政策的低碳能源选项;2)及早兴建CCS示范电厂;3)发展IGCC+CCS取代NGCC.

Techno-economic assessment of carbon capture and storage

In recent years,much attention has been drawn to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,as industrialized countries have had to find ways of using nuclear,renewable energy and LNG as clear energy in order to meet Kyoto targets.In terms of nuclear and renewable energy in Taiwan,they are difficult to develop based on the Fukushina nuclear accident and the resource limitation.Thus,NGCC is an emerging option for Taiwan.However,in comparison with the EU and US countries,the gas price in Taiwan is much more expensive as well as rises sharply.In order to face a higher cost and risk of NGCC and reduce carbon emissions in the future,to develop the technology of CCS are critically important for Taiwan policy-makers.In this paper,we perform financial analysis to evaluate the viability of PC,NGCC as well as PC with CCS in Taiwan,by using RETScreen model.Furthermore,the overnight cost of CCS is significantly different(range from 3837.51 to 5287 US dollars / kW) from the projections of IEA and EIA.In order to take account of data uncertainty,CCS capital cost and LNG price sensitivity analysis are performed.From the analysis results,with upward pressure on the carbon emission and LNG price,the technology of IGCC with CCS instead of NGCC will play an important role for electricity generation in Taiwan even without any carbon tax.