基于耗散结构理论的生产系统风险发展趋势研究

煤炭企业安全生产问题一直是我国面临的严峻问题,而目前大多数学者花费大量的人力物力针对煤炭安全生产系统风险进行评价。然而近年来对系统风险水平发展趋势研究相对较少。基于耗散结构理论对系统风险水平发展趋势进行了研究,首先进行了基于耗散结构理论从熵的视角对事故形成进行分析,以此划分出4种不同的发展趋势;其次建立了基于耗散结构理论的模型指标体系;最后,探讨了某煤炭企业安全生产近7 a的风险发展趋势,为系统风险发展趋势分析提供了思路和理论依据。

Research on Development Trend of Production System Risk Based on Dissipative Structure Theory

The safety production of coal enterprises has been a serious problem in China, and most scholars spend a lot of manpower and material resources to evaluate the risk of coal safety production system. However, relatively few studies have been conducted on the development trend of system risk level in recent years. Studies the development trend of system risk level based on the theory of dissipative structure. Firstly, the formation of accidents is analyzed from the perspective of entropy based on the theory of dissipative structure. Secondly, a model index system based on dissipative structure theory is established. Finally, the risk development trend of safety production in a coal enterprise in recent seven years is discussed, which provides the train of thought and theoretical basis for the analysis of the development trend of system risk.