大坝防洪安全风险评估框架及其应用

研究和探讨大坝防洪安全的风险评估方法,建立大坝防洪安全风险评估的框架.在广义的风险定义的基础上,提出一种新的风险定量表示法PML(一定置信水平下的可能最大损失),并分别基于期望损失和基于PML推导出两个风险定量估算公式.并给出根据所建立的两个风险定量估算公式计算防洪安全风险的具体方法.介绍可接受风险水平,提出其作为安全评价的判定依据所应注意的问题.以某水库为例,应用建立的框架分析和评估水库的防洪风险,并得出一些有价值的结论.

Risk assessment for hydrological safety of dam:a framework and its application

The risk assessment methods for hydrological safety of dam were discussed and a framework of risk assessment was developed. A new risk measure called PML(possible maximum loss with a certain confidence level) was proposed based on the general definition of risk. Two risk estimation formulas based on the expected value of the loss(E(L)) and the PML respectively were deduced. The way to estimate the hydrological risk according to the two proposed formulas was discussed in detail. Acceptable risk level was introduced as criteria for risk assessment and some related problems that should be paid attention to were discussed. The proposed framework was then used to analyze and estimate the hydrological risk for a given dam;and some valuable conclusions were drawn.