Theoretical predictions of failure probabilities for PWR pressure vessels subjected to accident conditions

The Second Marshall Report (1982) presented a detailed analysis of the integrity of PWR pressure vessels. As part of that study theoretical calculations of failure probabilities were made. Since the publication of that Report modifications have been made to the theoretical model to extend the failure criterion into stable crack extension, to update the knowledge of the distribution of various parameters, to more accurately represent the stress intensities and crack shapes, and to consider a different representation of pre-service detection of defects.In this paper these modifications are summarised and the application of the model to the calculation of failure frequencies for the most severe accident conditions, the large loss-of-coolant accident and the steam break, is presented. The results indicate that the probability of vessel failure is one to two orders of magnitude lower than previously predicted.