二手房租赁对商品房市场的影响机理研究

采用系统动力学分析了二手房租赁与商品房市场的因果反馈机制。以厦门市2000--2010年的房地产市场交易数据为依据，建立了包含二手房租赁交易的厦门市房地产市场系统动力学模型，预测了厦门市房地产市场的发展趋势，通过改变住房租赁市场中个人所得税、房产税等调控政策因素，模拟了它们对厦门市商品房市场的影响程度，提出了厦门市商品房市场可持续发展的建议与措施。

Effects of Rental Housing Market on Real Estate Market

System Dynamics （SD） was adopted to analyze the interactive mechanism between the second - hand rental hous- ing market and real estate market. Collecting the historical data of the real market from 2000 to 2010 in Xiamen, the system dy- namics model of real estate market which including the second - hand rental housing transactions was set up. The trends of the re- al estate market in Xiamen was also predicted; changing the parameters of the personal income tax, property tax and other sensi- tive policy factors in the second - hand housing rental market subsystem, the sensitiveness to the real estate market in Xiamen was simulated; accordingly the regulatory and recommendations of the real estate market in Xiamen were proposed.