| ARIMA模型在旋转机械振动预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷文平,郑鹏.ARIMA模型在旋转机械振动预测中的应用[J].郑州轻工业学院学报(自然科学版),2004,19(2):37-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷文平 郑鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州大学,机械工程学院,河南,郑州,450002 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了旋转机械振动的特点和 ARIMA 模型的建立及其他相关问题,阐述了利用 ARIMA 模型对旋转机械振动趋势序列进行预测的步骤和方法,并利用VC 6.0编程实现了自动建模和预测等功能.实例表明:时于满足该模型适用条件的非平稳序列,利用ARIMA 能够准确将其通过差分变成平稳序列,因而能够对该序列进行精确的多步预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 旋转机械 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-1478(2004)02-0037-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年2月26日 |
Forecast of the trend of vibration of rotating machinery by using ARIMA model |
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| LEI Wen-ping,ZHENG Peng.Forecast of the trend of vibration of rotating machinery by using ARIMA model[J].Journal of Zhengzhou Institute of Light Industry(Natural Science),2004,19(2):37-40. |
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| Authors: | LEI Wen-ping ZHENG Peng |
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| Abstract: | The characteristics of vibration of rotating machinery,the method of setting up ARIMA model and some related issues are analysed.Then followed by introducing the method and process to forecast the trend of vibration of machine by using ARIMA model.Automatic modeling and forecasting are achieved through a program in VC 6.0.The example in the article tells us that,the model which fits for the ARIMA model can change unstable series into stable one by difference.Thus makes the precise multistep forecast of the series. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA |
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