| Abstract: | The dominant photovoltaic (PV) technology today is crystalline silicon, used in 85% of the terrestrial modules shipped in 1996. Thin-film PV technologies promise to allow significant reductions in the cost per watt of electricity generated by PV modules. However, thin films must meet or exceed the standards for performance, reliability, and cost set by crystalline silicon in order to successfully penetrate the market. This paper reports the results of a detailed economic analysis done for a 25 MW year−1 multi-crystalline silicon production facility, including crystal growth, water slicing, solar cell fabrication and module assembly. The module manufacturing cost is projected to be $1·78 W−1. The sensitivity of module cost to polysilicon cost and cell efficiency were determined. This analysis provides a near-term (1998–2000) cost/performance benchmark against which thin-film technologies can be compared. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
