基于ARMA模型的自来水厂原水水质短期预报

为了解决自来水厂原水水质突变引起的应变滞后问题,使预测信息更加准确、及时、全面的服务于水厂作业人员,该文应用时间序列的ARMA模型对原水水质的浊度进行分析研究,建立水质变化的回归模型,并在此模型基础上进行预测验证。仿真结果表明,该模型能够较好地拟合水质变化曲线,具有较高的精确度,能够对实际生产起良好的指导作用。

Short-term forecast for source water quality of water plant based on ARMA model

In order to solve the strain lag issues of the water plant caused by mutation of source wa-ter, and making the prediction information more accurate, timely and comprehensive for operating water-works, a scheme based on the model of time series ARMA is put forward. This scheme analysis turbidity of source water and establishes the regression model of water quality change, forecast validation is done based on this model. Simulation results show that this model can better fit curve of water, high accuracy make it have good guidance to practical production.