水源连通对城市供水系统安全性的影响评价研究

本文从供水系统安全性的总体要求出发,分析了水源、供水设施、用水户三个环节在供水系统中的效应,提出了水源均衡性、水源应急保障性、供水设施可靠性、城镇用水满足度和水生态安全性五项指标。基于协同学方法构建了每项指标的计算方法,实现了对城市供水安全的综合性评价。以厦门市为实例,提出了不同的水源连通方案,并计算了供水系统安全性的有序度熵值。通过比较分析五项指标的有序度,推荐了最佳方案。研究证明了水源连通工程对更大范围内的水源优化配置和保障城市供水安全的作用,验证了评价方法的可行性。

Study on evaluation of effect from water-source connection on safety of urban water supply system

From the aspect of the general requirement on the safety of water supply system，the effects of the three key-links，i.e. water sources，water supply facilities and water users，in water supply system are analyzed herein，and then five indexes，such as equilibrium of water sources，emergency guarantee of water sources，reliability of water supply facilities，degree of satisfaction of domestic water supply and safety of water ecology are put forward. Based on the synergetic method，the calculation methods for all the indexes are constructed，thus the comprehensive evaluation on the safety of the urban water supply is realized. By taking Xiamen as an actual case，various schemes for the water-source connection are proposed，and then the ordered entropies for the safety of the water supply system are calculated. Through the comparative analysis made on the order degree of the five indexes，an optimal scheme is recommended. In this study，the effect of the water-source connection project on the optimized allocation of water sources and the guarantee of the safety of the urban water supply in a larger scope is demonstrated，while the feasibility of the evaluation method is certified as well.