广东省温室气体减排综合评价模型研究

国外能源模型一般是在发达国家的市场经济基础上开发的,比较适合于市场体系较为完善的国家和地区的能源系统的模拟和预测。中国对能源与环境进行系统建模研究起步较晚,然而还是取得了较大的成果,但省域级别的能源环境经济模型的研究还比较少,尤其是对于像广东省这样经济发展很快,而资源、能源十分匮乏的省份,能源对经济发展的"瓶颈"作用特别突出,因此开展省级能源经济模型研究意义十分重大。利用日本京都大学和国立环境研究所开发的综合模型工具ExSS,建立了适合广东省实际情况的能源与环境评价模型,并设定三种情景,应用模型对广东省2015年的能源消费量、能源结构和温室气体排放进行预测。三种情景分别是基准情景、政策情景和低碳情景。2015年基准情景、政策情景和低碳情景的能源消费量分别为3.4×108t标煤、3.2×108t标煤和3.1×108t标煤;三种情景下二氧化碳排放量分别为6.4×108t、5.6×108t和5.1×108t。广东省在"十二五"期间应加大力度调整能源结构,增加天然气的使用量,减少煤炭的使用,使煤炭的消耗比例控制在合理范围内。

A Study on GHGs Reduction Potential and Integrated Evaluation Model for Guangdong Province

Foreign countries＇ energy models are generally developed on the basis of market-driven economies of developed countries and are more suitable for simulating the energy systems of countries and regions with mature market systems.China is a latecomer in the research of modeling on energy and environmental systems but has made substantial progress in this area.However,the provincial and regional-level research on energy and environmental economic modeling has been scarce.Particularly in provinces such as Guangdong where e- conomic growth has been fast but natural resources and energy have been short,energy has been a roadblock to economic growth.Therefore ,initiating research on provincial-level energy economic modeling is of great sig- nificance.Researchers established an energy and environmental assessment model according to Guangdong province＇s specifics based on the integrated modeling tool ExSS developed by Kyoto University and National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan.Under three scenarios - benchmark scenario,policy scenario and low-carbon scenario,the model was used to predict Guangdong province＇s energy consumption,energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions by 2015.The province＇s energy consumption by 2015 under the benchmark scenariopolicy scenario and low-carbon scenario are 3.4×10^8t,3.2×10^8t and 3.1×10^8t of coal equivalent respectively and carbon dioxide emissions are 6.4×10^8t,5.6×10^8t and 5.1×10^8t respectively.Guangdong province should step up its effort to adjust energy mix during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period by increasing natural gas use and reducing coal use to an appropriate range.