计及季节与趋势因素的综合能源系统负荷预测

针对复杂影响因素下综合能源系统月度负荷预测精度低的问题,提出基于时间序列特征分解的月度负荷预测模型.利用时间序列分解方法将负荷数据分解为季节分量、趋势分量与随机分量,根据各分量随时间变化的特性,分别采用向量自回归模型、最小二乘支持向量回归与平均值法进行预测.各分量预测结果的投影重构值作为月度负荷的预测值,并考虑了季节拐点与区域经济因素对月度负荷的影响.实例分析证明该方法能够有效提高综合能源系统的月度负荷预测精度.

Integrated designing method applied in paver attachment design

Engineering machinery takes an important station in the foundation construction.In the field of engineering machinery,the traditional design method of cross reference was used in widely yet,which confined the new product development and the process innovation.So,how to use advanced design method and scientific research achievement in the engineering machinery is a matter in urgent need of thinking and solving.In this paper,the design methods used in paver attachment were discussed from the viewpoint of technology,and standardization degree of product and the ability of synthesis innovation were improved through the analysis technology of three-dimensional design used in the design of spreading machine.The results have some effect for the reference to the improvement of design technology in the field of engineering machinery.