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Reliability estimates for flawed mortar projectile bodies
Authors:J.A. Cordes   J. Thomas   R.S. Wong  D. Carlucci  
Affiliation:aUS Army ARDEC, AMSRD-AAR-MEF-E, Analysis and Evaluation Division, Fuze and Precision Armaments Technology Directorate, US Army Armament Research Development and Engineering Center, Picatinny Arsenal, NJ 07806-5000, USA
Abstract:The Army routinely screens mortar projectiles for defects in safety-critical parts. In 2003, several lots of mortar projectiles had a relatively high defect rate, 0.24%. Before releasing the projectiles, the Army reevaluated the chance of a safety-critical failure. Limit state functions and Monte Carlo simulations were used to estimate reliability. Measured distributions of wall thickness, defect rate, material strength, and applied loads were used with calculated stresses to estimate the probability of failure. The results predicted less than one failure in one million firings. As of 2008, the mortar projectiles have been used without any safety-critical incident.
Keywords:Reliability   Safety   Defects   Limit state function   Distributions   Failure   Mortars   Margin   Manufacturing defect   Strength   Safety-critical   X-rays   Finite element analysis   Case study   Monte Carlo simulation
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