考虑预报误差的水电站短期调度模糊风险研究

水电站短期发电计划编制一般采用预报径流进行，但受预报精度限制，预报值与实际值往往存在偏差，当电站位于近边界水位运行时，该偏差就可能带来弃水或出力不足问题。为定量分析径流预报误差的模糊特性及其对水电站短期发电调度的影响，本文提出了一种基于最优贴近度准则的径流预报误差模糊隶属函数优选方法，并引入可信性理论，建立了水电站在两种典型近边界工况（正常蓄水位和死水位）下的发电调度模糊风险分析模型，实现了水文预报误差模糊性与水电站短期发电调度风险的耦合与转化。实例研究中给出了锦西电站在两种近边界运行工况下的高风险区域及建议运行区域，可为该电站实际短期发电调度提供有力的参考和借鉴。

Fuzzy risk of short-term operation of hydropower stations considering runoff forecasting errors

Forecasted runoff is usually used to formulate a plan for short-term power generating operation of a hydropower station. However, errors in the forecasted inflow process is usually produced due to the error in runoff forecasting, and this will bring about a problem of unnecessary water abandoning or power output shortage in the case of a hydropower station operated at reservoir stage close to the limit. This paper describes a fuzzy membership function method for minimizing the effect of runoff forecasting errors based on an optimal closeness criterion to quantitatively analyze the fuzzy characteristics of the error and its influence on short-term operation of a hydropower station. And applying the credibility theory, we develop a fuzzy risk analysis model for the short-term operation, especially at reservoir stages around one of the two typical limits ? normal stage or dead stage, achieving effective coupling and transformation between the fuzziness of forecasting errors and the risk in hydropower station operation. In a case study of the Jinxi hydropower station, this model reveals the high risk operation areas, and we suggest reliable areas for its operation close to the stage limits, thus providing useful information for short-term operation of hydropower stations.