长江经济带水资源生态足迹时空分析及预测

基于生态足迹模型测算长江经济带及其各个省(市)的人均水资源生态足迹、人均水资源生态承载力以及人均水资源生态盈亏,并运用灰色神经网络模型预测2016-2025年的发展趋势。研究结果表明:从时间趋势来看,长江经济带人均水资源生态足迹呈现先上升后趋于平稳的变化趋势,生态承载未出现超载现象,人均水资源生态足迹和水资源生态承载力均有较大时间上波动;从空间差异来看,人均水资源生态足迹的年均值总体呈现上游高下游低的空间分布特征(浙江省除外),人均水资源生态承载力的年均值受自然因素影响呈现明显的空间变化差异;从预测结果来看,人均水资源生态足迹有较大下降的为上海、浙江和湖南,水资源可持续利用状况不容乐观的有江苏、重庆以及云南。

Research for spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of water resource ecological footprint in Yangtze River Economic Belt

Based on the ecological footprint model, this paper calculated the ecological footprint per capita, the ecological bearing capacity of water resource per capita and ecological surplus of water resources per capita among provinces (cities) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The development trend from 2016 to 2025 was forecasted using grey neural network model. The main conclusions are as follows. First, in terms of time trends, the ecological footprint of water resources per capita in Yangtze River Economic Belt experienced a process of rising first and then becoming stable. Ecological carrying did not appear overloaded. The ecological footprint per capita and the ecological carrying capacity of water resources per capita showed great temporal fluctuations. Second, in terms of spatial difference, the annual average value of water resources ecological footprint per capita in Yangtze River Economic Belt overall presented a spatial distribution characteristic of higher in the upper reaches and lower in the downstream regions (except for Zhejiang Province). The annual average value of water resources ecological carrying capacity per capita showed obvious spatial variation due to natural factors. Third, in terms of forecasted results, the value of water resources ecological footprint per capita in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Hunan is decreasing greatly. Sustainable utilization state of water resources is not optimistic in Jiangsu and Chongqing and Yunnan.