规模化电动汽车充电负荷的预测及其对电网的影响

电动汽车充电负荷时空分布预测是分析研究电动汽车充电对电网影响的前提,也是电网规划、运行调度的基础和依据。在对充电负荷影响因素分析的基础上,提出将预测区域进行分层分区,对不同功能用地的主要车辆,依据其出行链特性,基于转移概率矩阵建立描述车辆出行规律的模型。根据用户充电行为的随机性和不确定性,应用模糊推理法和概率统计法建立车辆在不同目的地的充电概率,并运用蒙特卡洛法对不同功能用地的充电负荷进行计算。最后,以A城市某片区为例,对其未来充电负荷进行预测,得到该地充电负荷的时空分布,并且分析了不同充电场所充电负荷对电网所造成的影响。

Forecasting the Charging Load of Large-scale Electric Vehicle and Its Impact on the Power Grid

Forecasting the spatial and temporal distribution of charging load of electric vehicle is the precondition of studying its charging effect on power grid, which is the foundation and basis of power grid planning and scheduling. Based on the influencing factors analysis of the charging load, a hierarchical division of the predicting area is proposed, and the model of describing vehicles travelling rules is built based on transition probability matrix according to its travel chain characteristics of main vehicles in different functional lands. According to the randomness and uncertainty of user charging behavior, the probability of vehicles charging at different destinations is established by applying fuzzy reasoning method and probability statistics method, and the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate charging load of different functional lands. In the end, taking a certain area of city A as an example, its future charging load is forecasted, spatial and temporal distribution of charging load in the area is obtained. In addition, the effects of charging load in different charging places on the power grid are analyzed.