梅山水库大坝河床段变形监测资料分析

为分析梅山水库大坝河床坝段变形规律，定量识别各因素对河床段变形的影响，通过分析大坝10#和11#垛坝段的变形监测资料，建立回归统计模型进行拟合，再选取典型特征年(2021年)监测数据进行各分量的分离。结果表明：水库河床坝段其X向位移较小，Y向位移呈年度周期性变化；谐波因子的逐步回归模型能够较好反映变形规律，复相关系数为0.8~0.95；河床坝段的位移主要是受温度的影响。

Analysis of deformation monitoring data of riverbed section of Meishan Reservoir dam

In order to obtain the deformation law of the riverbed dam section of Meishan Reservoir dam and quantitatively identify the influence of various factors on the deformation of the riverbed section, through the measured monitoring data of the dam 10# and 11# pier dam sections, a regression statistical model is established for fitting, and then the typical characteristic year (2021) is selected to separate the components of the monitoring data. The analysis results show that the displacement in the X direction of the dam section of the reservoir riverbed is small, and the displacement in the Y direction changes periodically every year; The stepwise regression model of harmonic factor can better reflect the deformation law, and its complex correlation coefficient is 0.8~0.95; The displacement of riverbed dam section is mainly affected by temperature.