2005～2050铸造的繁荣时期--予中国铸造行业经营者的启示

中国基础设施的巨大改善以及由此所引起的对于金属耐久品的大幅需求,无疑都推动了金属铸件市场需求呈两位数的速度增长.同时,全世界都在从中国寻找更多的铸件以及装配好的包含铸件的终端成品.这种趋势很有可能在近期持续下去,并且一定会给中国铸造厂商带来不断发展的机遇.事实上作为几个新兴的巨大市场之一,中国和其它几个国家将从现在到2050年增长到与全美经济相当.与过去的几十年的比较,这将会双倍加速金属铸件增长的速率.当碳氢化合的原料的竞争市价提高到一个新高度以及由于碳氢化合物的日益稀少而可能使价格持续增长的时候,冶金学的快速发展恰恰改进了金属性能和成本率.同时,提炼和制造技术也提供了大幅降低金属铸造成本的更好道具,例如镁和钛.最后,工艺设计和制造变得更加多产、灵活以及节约成本.本文旨在为我们见证铸造繁荣时期的开始,以及对如何紧跟潮流给中国的铸造工业经营者们提供一些指导性建议.

The Prosperous Age of Castings,2005～2050 and the Implications for the Chinese Foundry Executive

There is no doubt that the metal casting industry is booming in China. The tremendous growth in infrastructure and resulting huge appetite for durable goods is driving the need for castings at double digit rates. As well, the entire world is sourcing more raw castings from China, as well as assembled end-use products that contain castings. These trends are likely to continue in the near term and assure a continuing boom for Chinese foundries. China is, in fact, one of several emerging markets that, combined, will add the equivalent of one entirely new U. S. economy every decade from now until 2050. This, alone, will double the rate of casting growth compared to the past several decades. Metallurgical developments are rapidly enhancing performance/cost ratio for metals, just at the time costs for competing hydrocarbon-based materials are escalating to new highs and likely to continue escalating as hydrocarbons become scarce. As well, extraction and manufacturing technologies offer the possibility to dramatically reduce costs for metals having superior properties, such as magnesium and titanium. Finally, casting design and manufacturing are becoming increasingly more capable, flexible and cost effective. This paper explores the rationale for our belief that we are witnessing the beginning of The Prosperous Age of Castings and provides some guidance specific to Chinese foundry industry executives on how to catch the wave.